academics > politics > political_polarization > civil_war
document updated 1 year, 7 months ago, on Sep 5, 2022

What a Second Civil War would actually mean

I've heard a lot of talk about "civil war" lately, especially in the press.

Note that some data sources do not indicate an uptick in the use of the term "civil war" — Google Trends: nope. Google Books Ngram Viewer: nope.

(TODO — Maybe use the NOW Corpus ("News on the Web") (or maybe the "Unified Representation of Twitter and Online News" data is available?) to graph the frequency of use of "civil war" since 2008)

"The US isn't red or blue, it's actually purple"

And it's true. Look at a county-level map of the 2020 election, and most counties have >20% voting for the minority party in that county.

It's true that there are a few highly polarized districts on that map:

(population figures are from some recent decennial census)

... but on the whole, most counties have >20% voting for the minority party. This means that a partition, regardless of how it would actually be drawn, would mean a HUGE migration, like the kind not seen since the 1947 partition of India.

Appendix A — other map variations